0 Allepeilingen.com heeft medewerking verleend aan de totstandkoming van een paper van Eric Sanders en prof. Antal van den Bosch. In de paper staan onder andere de volgende grafieken:
waarover Sanders et al. schrijft:
"The left figure shows how both in the Twitter mentions as in the poll results the PvdA was gaining in the last ten days before the elections while the SP was losing voters. The SP started out popular, but in the debates the PvdA leader was doing well, while the SP leader‟s debating was considered disappointing. The right figure exemplifies the fairly strong correlation of the percentages of Twitter mentions and poll results during the whole period"
Hieronder treft u de samenvatting:
"In each of the last ten days preceding the parliamentary elections of 2012 in the Netherlands at least one election poll was published. Throughout the same period close to 170 thousand Dutch microtext messages with references to political parties were posted on Twitter, the microblogging platform. In this study we investigate whether these tweets can serve as an addition to, or even an alternative for the traditional polls as predictors of the election outcomes. We show that counts of mentions of political party names are strongly correlated with the polls and the election results. While polls remain more accurate as a predictor of the outcome (a mean absolute error of 1.1% and a correlation of about 0.98 with the actual percentage of votes cast for all parties), the Twitter statistics show a mean absolute error of 1.9% when aggregated over a number of days, and display a high correlation with elections and polls (in both cases, r˜0.95). We conclude that tweet mention counts form a good complementary basis for predicting election results."
